B.C.’s top doctor says the province is currently maintaining a fine balance as people increase the number of connections they have with other people.

Dr. Bonnie Henry says new modelling shows that strong contact tracing has provided a buffer against a surge in new cases as restrictions are eased.

“When we have moderate distancing measures in place, we need to find about 75 per cent of people within one to three days to be able to effectively control the epidemic,” she said.

“As we are moving into our next phase, we need to continue to be able to effectively find people.”

She is stressing caution as she says even when we think the virus is gone from our communities, it will come back as people travel or expand their social bubbles.

“Our dilemma is that we have to find that balance because we need to find everybody within a few days. And we are good at that. We’ve shown the data from B.C. where we have effectively found 97 to 99 per cent of contacts within 48 hours after a case is identified.”

Henry adds B.C.’s reproductive number – that’s the number of people one case will transmit the virus to – has dropped from just under three in March, to about one.

“So that means most people don’t transmit to anybody after they develop symptoms themselves, and we were quite flat, well below one, which is where we need to stay,” she added. “It has allowed us to increase our activity without having rapid increase in numbers of people who are exposed and infected.”

She also noted that the new models released yesterday suggest that contact rates among British Columbians since in mid-May is roughly 65 per cent of the normal, which is what health officials were aiming for with the gradual easing restrictions.

“If we dramatically increase to 80 per cent, or go back to what was considered normal, we can expect to see a dramatic increase in cases, and that is what we want to avoid,” Henry said, noting that continued success is dependent on maintaining physical distancing and other precautions.

“We have to be committed to staying together and doing the same things we have been doing, and that will allow us to do more — we also have to philosophically accept that absolutely we are going to have more cases.”

The low number of cases in the province also make predictive models inherently unstable, she said. Health officials reported 13 new cases yesterday, bringing B.C.’s total to 2,835 cases, and 170 deaths. There are also 16 people currently in hospital, seven of whom are in intensive care.