Prescribed burn near Lytton, March 28, 2023/via BC Wildfire Service
Provincial authorities have provided their forecast for the spring melt and summer wildfire season, with expectations that things shouldn’t be all that bad.
The end of the La Nina cycle is leaving a band of cooler-than-normal water off the BC coast, meaning temperatures are expected to be below normal for the coming few weeks.
Colder-than-normal water temperatures off the BC coast, April 11, 2023/via Environment Canada
However, Armel Castellan with Environment Canada says that is likely to change.
“We are starting to see that script be flipped sometime maybe in May, or perhaps, in June, when those sea-surface temperature anomalies no longer represent a cooler trend.”
The cooler start is suggesting a delayed and possibly slower snowpack melt — with the snowpack itself in the North Thompson at around 80 percent of normal.
Dave Campbell with the River Forecast Center notes most of the province — including the North Thompson — has a snowpack below average, with a cooler-than-normal start to the spring expected to delay the melt.
He does say the one wild-card — as always — will be the weather.
“So as we go forward, really, monitoring this extreme weather is going to be important, and also important within the areas where we have high snowpack, as well as areas that have normal or low snowpack, we still have that potential hazard there.”
On the wildfire front, Matt MacDonald with the BC Wildfire service notes the dry conditions right now are a cause for concern, pointing to a prescribed burn crews reviewed after-the-fact near Lytton late last month.
Burned out tree stump left from prescribed burn near Lytton at the end of March/via BC Wildfire Service
“They were a little surprised to see full consumption of not only the stumps of trees, but actually burning down into the root bulb, into what we call the duff layer.”
Environment Canada is predicting the spring precipitation in the Southern Interior are expected to pick up to normal in the coming weeks.
Likely precipitation scenarios/via BC Government
But always, the Wildfire Service notes the extent of any fire season will be dependent mostly on weather conditions.
The Wildfire Service does say it intends to be well staffed this year.
This includes close to 2,000 Wildfire staff, on top of around 700 contractors at the ready to fight fires this year.
